Author: gopaldevanahalli

Interested in Healthcare, Education, Digital, Public Policy

Categories
General Politics

Asset Monetization in India

The Indian central government has recently announced an ambitious Asset Monetization Plan. The objective of this plan is to offer existing government owned infrastructure assets(“Brownfield” assets) to private investors, thereby generating fresh capital. The newly generated capital can then be used for further infrastructure investments, without adding to public debt. The infrastructure assets will be offered in various sectors – Roads, Railways, Warehousing, Ports, Airports, Telecom, Power Generation, Power Transmission, Natural Gas pipelines, Real Estate as well as other assets like Sports Stadia. Over 6 Trillion INR(81 Bill USD) will be offered over the next 4 years under this Plan.

Unlike privatization, the government will not be giving up ownership control of the assets. Instead, the assets will be returned to full control of the government after a pre-determined number of years. 

Let us examine the impact on the stakeholders involved – Government, Private Investors and Indian Citizens.

  • Government : This allows the government to raise money from existing assets without increasing debt. This also side-steps the politically unpopular discourse around privatization. For this to work, the amount that can be generated upfront has to be more than the NPV of the current predicted earning streams of that asset. For example, if the asset is a road, the upfront money has to be more than the discounted cash flows of profits(from toll charges) that are currently being generated/projected over the next few years. The key assumption is that the asset is underutilized from an earnings perspective. It is assumed that a private operator can either generate more revenues or reduce cost of operations or do both. However, the government will need to handle any blowback that may occur if the private operators provide inadequate service to the citizens.
  • Private Investors : Strategic investors(companies like Reliance, Adanis etc) would be interested if they believe a) they can operate these assets better than the government and/or b) the asset will provide synergetic value to their other businesses. Institutional investors who are typically long term investors like pension funds & sovereign funds, would be interested if they believe that the risk adjusted returns are higher than government bonds. India’s experience in BOTs & PPPs for greenfield projects has been mixed and investor interest will be based on past experiences, legal issues & contractual obligations that the government will lay out for that asset.
  • Indian Citizens : Private operators are very likely to offer better customer experience to Citizens than what the government is currently offering. However, citizens who do not pay full prices for the services(either through avoidance or special political considerations) will get impacted. Citizens also benefit indirectly as the government will be able to raise vast sums of money without increasing debt or taxes.  Citizens could also benefit from the innovative uses of the asset by the private players – for example new retail stores & office space in assets like railway stations.

I believe that this is a good move by the central government and opens up interesting opportunities for infrastructure players in India. The government could also look at other sectors in the next phase – for example in healthcare, there are medical diagnostic assets (CTS/MRIs) that can be potentially monetized by offering it to diagnostic chains.

Categories
General Healthcare Politics

Covid Surge in India

I had written 4 months back about the India’s Covid Vaccine rollout plans. Even to someone who is not in public health, the enormity of the challenge was obvious. At 3 million vaccines a day and assuming children would need to be vaccinated too, I had said it would take over 2 years to get the country vaccinated. It was critical to have plans for managing the pandemic during those 2 years. The surge of cases that has now hit India has shown the inadequacy of the preparation. Indian healthcare system is struggling to cope with the increases in the hospitalizations – lack of Covid beds, ICU beds & Oxygen. In my view, India needs to do the following:

  • Continue to work on the Vaccination roll-out. While India has hit a milestone of 100 million doses, it is still far behind the over 2 billion doses required. India needs to clear any bottlenecks on the supply side. In parallel, India needs to educate the citizens on the need to get vaccinated.
  • As the vaccine roll-out will take more than a year, India needs to plan assuming the worst – that there would be other Covid surges.
    • Increase the medical supply to handle any surges – beds, ventilators, pharmaceuticals for treating patients
    • Continue mask requirements, social distancing and ensure small public gatherings
  • Support the economy – the surges & lockdowns will impact the economy over the next 2 years – the government will need to provide stimulus as required.
  • Support people impacted negatively by the economy – social welfare schemes need to be bolstered.
  • The Central & State governments need to be transparent with the public. This is not the time for politicking and scoring brownie points at the cost of transparency. That will damage the trust of the citizens with the system

As the April 2021 surge has shown, we cannot be complacent with this pandemic – while we should hope for the best, lets prepare for the worst!

Categories
Business Career

Growing in a management role

An acquaintance reached out to get some career advice. She had worked in this organization for over 12 years. Over these years, she had been an individual contributor. Recently she had got an opportunity to take on an additional role in management. She was seeking advice on how to grow in management. My inputs were as follows:

  • Performance in the new role: As she is taking on a role in management for the first time, it is important for her to understand the expectations clearly. I advised her to have a discussion with her supervisor and agree to the metrics that she would be measured by. I also suggested that she seek feedback every three months.
  • Build a network internally and externally: Many of us do not consciously build our networks. This is especially true of an individual contributor, like a technical architect in IT or a faculty member in education. Such a person feels that performance should speak for his or her capabilities and that is sufficient to be recognized by the organization. However, performance in their current job, offers only one perspective. The individual may have other capabilities which may not come to the surface in the job they have. Hence it is important to meet different people in the organization and build a network. During that process, others in the organization will become aware of the individual’s capabilities. It is also important to build a network externally. One gains new insights from interacting with professionals externally. This will help them contribute more in their jobs which will in turn help in their career. Building an external network can take years. However, one can start the process by interacting with people from your college, family and then slowly extending it. I also advised her that when she is building these connections both internally and externally, she needs to contribute and not just receive. For example, send an interesting article to a colleague, connect two people in her network who may have a shared interest etc.
  • Build your personal brand: As we discussed, she realized, that her identify was closely linked to her current company. Many of us are in the same situation. We overestimate the value of our brand, without realizing that it gets power from the company we work for. One way to test this, is to ask yourself – will you be invited as a panelist in a conference if you are no longer in the current organization? Building a personal brand is easier said than done. Volunteering in an industry association, writing blogs & creating interest groups were some of the ideas we discussed.
  • Volunteer for cross-functional initiatives: It is good to get exposure to different aspects of a company’s functioning – marketing, customer experience, HR, finance & operations. One way to get this is to volunteer for corporate projects. Usually companies have cross-functional initiatives – ranging from quality projects, technology projects and annual strategic initiatives. I advised her to volunteer for such projects. Apart from getting wider perspective of the organization, this would also help her build internal networks.

While all the above is good advice, it will be important for her to execute on the above four areas. We did agree to meet again in a few months to take stock.

Categories
Business Digital

Data Privacy

Data privacy has been a hot topic of late.  There has been a recent surge in the usage of Signal a competitor to Whatsapp because of data privacy issues. There has been a widely reported talk by the Apple CEO, Tim Cook taking aim at companies like Facebook.  There have been hard questions asked in the US about the impact of social media on fake news and conspiracy theories.

A recent paper by Apple describes a scary scenario – a father & daughter go to the park and during that process, a lot of data gets collected & tracked. Some of the key points made in this paper include:

  • Personal data is being harvested by a large ecosystem – Apps, Websites, social media, third party brokers & ad-tech firms. In most cases, the data is harvested without the knowledge or consent of the people.
  • On an average, there are 6 trackers embedded in an App which collect and share data with data brokers as well as other Apps. So my data, which I have consented to be shared with one App is also going to other Apps and data brokers. One of the data brokers, according to this paper, collects data on 700 million people and they have created profiles with over 5000 characteristics
  • Many Apps, ask for more access to data, than what is required to provide the service and the user is not aware of this
  • There are alternatives to this widespread collection of data – Apple talks about a few principles:
    • Collect as little data as required for the service
    • Process the data on the device itself rather than storing it elsewhere
    • User should know and give consent to the data being harvested

Apple has announced two big changes. The first change is the introduction of an App Privacy section in the App Store – each App’s product page has to show a summary of developers’ privacy practices. However, it is unlikely that many users will view this before downloading the App.

The second change announced by Apple is more interesting and has caused the furor with Facebook, namely “App Tracking Transparency” which will be introduced soon. Once this is introduced, an App will be required to explicitly get the user’s permission before tracking their data across apps or websites. Without permission, the App will not be able to access the unique advertising identifier (IDFA) on the iPhone. Facebook has responded with plans to help users enable the tracking.

While the ecosystem players, notably Facebook, argue that the data collected, is being used for offering personalized ads to consumers thereby helping them – it is also true that the data is misused in many cases – fake news ads during elections & hate campaigns have been well documented.

In India, currently there are ongoing discussions in a joint parliamentary committee, of the draft Personal Data Protection bill which is likely to be debated in the Parliament soon. The final bill is likely to include compliance requirements for personal data, strengthening the data rights of an individual & introduction of a central data protection regulator.

But there is a more interesting discussion happening in India – on how sharing of data can bring benefits to the people. As Amitabh Kanth, the CEO of Niti Ayog put it – “In India, we not only need stronger data protection, but also data empowerment: everyday Indians need control over their own personal data to improve their lives.” For example, if there is data about GSTN transactions of a small businessperson, a bank can give the person working capital credit, even though the person doesn’t have a credit history. Similarly, personal loans can be given to individuals based on their digital payment history.  To enable this, a draft “Data Empowerment and Protection Architecture(DEPA)” document has been published for discussion. The key aspects of DEPA are as follows:

  • Ability for individuals to access their personal data generated across silos
  • Ability to digitally give consent for the use of the data – through the introduction of private “Consent Manager institutions”. These Consent Managers will also ensure protection of data rights.
  • Technology architecture – The Consent Artefact, a technology standard for programmable consent; Open APIs for data sharing; Industry information standards( financial industry has been developed)

These are interesting times indeed for data privacy. While in the US & Europe, there is debate on restricting data sharing as data is used primarily to sell things to the user, in India, there is a movement towards data empowerment – to benefit the user to access services. As has been said – in today’s digital world, data is the new oil – how it is handled, will determine the future of societies.

Categories
General Politics

Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

Gandhi was assassinated on Jan 30th, 1948, just one year after he led India to its independence from British rule. On this 73rd death anniversary, some of his messages that I have found most inspiring are listed below:

  • Very transparent life – he has extensively written about his views including his well- known book – ‘My experiments with Truth’. The ‘Collected works of Gandhi’ is close to 100 volumes. He strongly believed in leading by example – he is quoted to have said – “My life is my message”. If one were to imagine Gandhi living today, I am sure he would be extremely active on Facebook, Insta & Twitter.
  • Inter-faith harmony – Gandhi was an absolute believer, that people of all religions need to live together in peace. Gandhi himself was a devout Hindu. However, he was completely opposed to religion becoming a wedge in society. He was extremely disappointed that he couldn’t prevent the partition of the Indian sub-continent into India and Pakistan. During the Hindu-Muslim communal riots, Gandhi was on the front-lines, giving speeches, using all his moral authority & fasting, to stop the riots – his letter to  Vallabhai Patel, had this statement “My going on living depends entirely on complete peace being established in India.”  Unfortunately, the world hasn’t changed too much – there continues to be several conflict zones in the world based on religion & ethnicity –for example, the large scale persecution of Rohingya in Myanmar! The world needs more leaders like Gandhi to put an end to such conflicts.
  • Satyagraha – Gandhi perfected the art of non-violent resistance calling it Satyagraha(Truth force). Several leaders including Martin Luther King were influenced by this philosophy in their social change movements.  Some people mistake Satyagraha as being weak – however this form of resistance needed people to be extremely brave. Gandhi and other freedom fighters in India faced several hardships including spending years as prisoners.
  • Simple Living – One of his famous quotes is “”The world has enough for everyone’s needs, but not everyone’s greed”. Today, as we debate Climate Change, the widening gap between the rich & the poor and the short-comings of capitalism, Gandhi’s message of simple living is extremely topical. Gandhi experimented extensively about living a monastic life. While this kind of lifestyle is not for everyone, we should all reflect about the lifestyles we lead!
Categories
General Politics

Republic Day Reflections

26th January, 2021 is India’s 71st Republic Day. In 1950, this was the day on which the Constitution of India came into effect. The Constitution was written by the Constituent Assembly of India, which had its first meeting on 9th December, 1946. While many of us may be familiar with the Preamble, fundamental rights, directive principles and some of the popular Articles like Article 14(equality before law); it is fascinating that the Indian Constitution has enabled India to become the largest democracy in the world, while several countries who got Independence around the same time, in the 1940s & 1950s have struggled with democracy.

Madhav Khosla’s book – India’s Founding Moment, lays out, that ‘democracy was being instituted in a difficult setting: poor and illiterate; divided by caste, religion, and language; and burdened by centuries of tradition’. It is in these circumstances, that the Constitution was framed. Madhav describes what he calls the ‘founding schema’ of the Constitution in terms of three key aspects:

  • Detailed Codification:  The Indian Constitution, is often referred to as the world’s longest written constitution.  According to Madhav, the Constitution had to play the role of a political teacher to the citizens, because of the circumstances. A striking example of codification is the Directive Principles, that is binding on the government but judicially unenforceable.  Also unlike other constitutions, the Constitution guaranteed certain rights like the right to freedom of speech, but also limited such rights.
  • Choice of a strong centralized state and rejection of localism:  There were a lot of discussion on the nature of the republic – regional autonomy, self-governance at the village level etc. The final decision was for a strong center. It was felt by the framers that localism would prevent individuals to assert their choices as they would be bound by their communities. Though India is technically federal, the power of the center is significantly higher compared to other federal countries.
  • Representation centered on individuals: Universal suffrage was adopted in spite of the magnitude of the task of conducting the world’s largest elections. In the US, women got to vote in 1920 almost 140 years after the establishment of the nation. While there was debate in India, about restricting voting based on literacy and wealth, such discussions were rejected. Communal based representation which was prevalent in British ruled India, was also rejected. Today every individual has a vote irrespective of their identity.

As someone who was not born during the framing of the Constitution, I am deeply grateful to the framers, who gave us a Constitution, that has enabled India to make great strides as democracy. Happy Republic Day!

Categories
Business Digital General

Digital – Acceleration of Demand

I recently attended a talk by Nandan Nilekani, the Chairman of Infosys. Nandan is also well known for being the first Chairman of UIDAI, which developed Aadhar the unique id for every Indian.

In his address, Nandan talked about the importance of scale for a business – especially a business which is B2C.  For a business to scale, it is important to be in a market where the demand is huge & growing. According to Nandan, demand which typically grows organically, can sometimes get accelerated. Some of the ways in which demand for digital services in India has got accelerated are as follows:

  • Demand created by government policies
    • As has been well documented, demonetization in 2016 has caused a huge demand for digital payments in India. UPI which went live in April 2016, is now processing over 2 billion transactions per month.
    • Another example was the implementation in 2017 of GST in India, because of which over 11 million businesses had to go online – this has created huge demand for various products including accounting and tax software.
  • Demand created by technology
    • The launch of Jio, drove down the price of mobile data in India, thereby adding millions of active users of the Internet. India’s average cost per 1 GB of data is 9 cents compared to 8 dollars in the US. This in turn, has led to creation of huge demand for short-form videos.
  • Demand created by the Covid Pandemic
    • Hopefully we will never have a pandemic again. However, the pandemic has changed the consumer behavior in India for various online services:
      • Online learning – millions of children, parents & teachers have got comfortable with learning digitally
      • Telemedicine – while telemedicine pilots have been ongoing in India for several years, the pandemic forced patients and doctors to use teleconsultation as the primary mode for several months.
      • E-commerce – Consumers across age groups as well geography have experienced e-commerce during the pandemic.
    • Push to Pull – Before the pandemic, digital companies in India were ‘pushing’ people to experience online through discounts. The pandemic has changed that to a ‘pull’ thereby bringing down the cost of acquisition of a consumer. This will enable digital businesses to become profitable and sustainable sooner than before.

This is a great time for digital entrepreneurs in India. The demand has scaled dramatically and if entrepreneurs can execute well on the ground, we are likely to see several profitable digital enterprises.

Categories
General Politics

Biden Inaugural

Twenty years back, I had followed with fascination the Bush vs Gore election – I had moved to the US in 1999 and was thoroughly impressed with the way, the campaigning was carried out. I keenly watched the town-hall style campaigning that Gore & Bush were conducting. I distinctly remember a town-hall in Microsoft that Gore had with the employees – it was very engaging. Town-halls & presidential debates were new to me – these were uncommon in elections in India. During that election, the issues that got debated included abortion; immigration, size of the government & tax breaks – however the discourse was civil & the personal attacks were minimal. The election was extremely close and finally the Supreme Court had to step in before Bush was declared the winner. However, though very disappointed, Gore gracefully conceded and being the Vice President at that time, oversaw the formal certification of the electoral college in the   Capitol.

I still find it hard to believe how things have changed in 20 years. I went back to India in 2006 and only in 2019 came back to the US. Several factors including the phenomenal rise of social media, the financial meltdown in 2009 & the loss of manufacturing jobs have exacerbated the political divisions in the US.  The issues debated were similar to the ones 20 years back – role of government, tax breaks, immigration etc – but the debates were shriller. Though the election was not even as close as the 2000 election, millions of people did not believe in the fairness of this election. The incumbent President, Donald Trump, did not concede to the winner Biden and on Jan 6, 2021, there were violent protests at the Capitol during the certification of the electoral college. There was talk of more violence during the Presidential inauguration.

However, by the end of the inauguration day of Joe Biden & Kamala Harris on 20th Jan 2021, I was quite optimistic:

  • The inauguration went off very smoothly – while Trump wasn’t present, there were political leaders across the political spectrum demonstrating a firm belief in the Constitution
  • Biden’s speech was unifying – it was positive and talked about possibilities for all Americans
  • It was gratifying to see Kamala Harris taking oath – the first woman, first black and first Indian origin Vice President
  • Great performances by Lady Gaga, JLo, Bruce Springsteen, John Legend and others

The last 10 months have been very difficult because of the Covid pandemic which resulted in so many deaths and economic hardships. However, the inauguration, seems to be first ray of sunshine after a long night. Only time will tell, how the rest of the Biden term goes. But, quoting Amanda Gorman, who at the inauguration, gave a stupendous rendition of her poem “The Hill we climb” – “But while democracy can be periodically delayed, it can never be permanently defeated.”

Categories
General

Inspiring performance by the Indian cricket team in Sydney

The last day, of the five-day Sydney test match between India & Australia, was a treat to watch for an Indian fan like me. By the end of the 4th day, it was clear that Australia had a complete grip on the match.

Australia had over 90 overs on the 5th day, to get eight Indian wickets and win the match. India had two good batsmen who were injured – Rishab Pant and Ravindra Jadega. Another batsman – Vihari, hadn’t done very well in the previous two matches and the first inning of this match. The Australian pace attack was very good and they had a world-class spinner in Nathan Lyon.

After losing Rahane first thing in the morning, I felt it was almost impossible for the Indian team to avoid defeat. However, Pant & Pujara, put on a brilliant partnership of 140 runs in 45 overs, before Pant got out just 3 runs shy of a well-deserved century. Pujari got out a few overs later. At that point, India had to face another 42 overs with five wickets in hand. Vihari had pulled a hamstring and was hobbling. Ashwin known for his fantastic bowling but not necessarily for his batting, had come to bat earlier than Jadeja who was injured.  The Australian bowlers were on fire – the fast bowlers were peppering Ashwin with bouncers which hit his body a few times. The spinner Lyon, seemed like he could get a wicket out of every ball.

The task ahead seemed almost impossible – however, Vihari & Ashwin managed to block the balls and did not lose their wickets. Vihari seemed to be in a trance – defending every ball. He batted for over160 balls and scored only 23 runs. Ashwin, who apparently had a back ache the previous night and took a few blows to his body, batted resolutely – 39 runs in 129 balls. India managed to draw the test by batting out the entire 5th day and still having five wickets in hand. Though it was a draw, for me, it was as good as a win. This last day of the game demonstrated several things:

  • Even in the face of severe adversity, be in a positive mindset as Pant showed
  • Mind over body – as Vihari & Ashwin demonstrated
  • Take incremental steps and not worry about the end – the batsmen were focused on playing out the next ball and the next over!
  • The Indian batsmen – especially Vihari & Ashwin were not at their best, however they showed a lot of “Grit” – a combination of perseverance & passion – described by the psychologist Angela Duckworth,  in her book https://angeladuckworth.com/grit-book/

It was a wonderful test match to watch and I am cheering India on, as they face Australia in the final match of the series in Brisbane!!

Categories
Fire Safety Healthcare

Indian Hospital Fires in the last few months!!

It was so sad to see the newsflash about the death of 10 new born babies in a hospital fire in Bhandara, Maharashtra on 9th of Jan, 2021. What is shocking, is that in the last few months there have been over 50 deaths in hospital fire accidents across India. In addition, there have been other hospital fires which fortunately did not result in deaths. In total, I have come across 12 hospital fire incidents since May 2020. Here is a list:

There have been other large hospital fire incidents in the past including at AMRI Kolkatta which killed over 90 people – https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/from-mumbais-andheri-hospital-to-calcuttas-amri-a-list-of-major-hospital-fire-outbreaks-in-india/321919

Unfortunately, as a nation we do not seem to be learning from these tragedies. There is usually a flurry of media attention post the fire, there is a call for investigations, panels are created and reports are submitted to the government, but post that, nothing happens. These hospital fire incidents are primarily because of the following reasons:

  • Not compliant with fire safety rules & regulations – cases of wrongful ‘No Objection Certificates(NOCs)’ being issued to hospitals, have been well documented.
  • Compliant but not doing enough to take precautions – for example periodic checking of electric connections – short circuits are a leading cause of fires in hospitals
  • Inadequate training to handle fire accidents – regular drills with hospital staff are a must and usually, this is not taken seriously. Also the fire-fighting infrastructure is below capacity in many parts of India

These hospital fire accidents can be prevented to a large extent, if regular fire safety audits are done. In Bengaluru, Beyond Carlton(https://www.beyondcarlton.org/) had been making the case for fire safety audits in hospitals for many years and in 2016, the Karnataka fire department had actually done that – https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/Fire-safety-audit-across-all-hospitals-in-the-State/article15624433.ece.  

Last month, the Supreme Court of India, after taking suo motu cognizance of the hospital fire accident in Rajkot, asked the State governments to form committees to undertake fire safety audit of all hospitals  – https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/form-committees-to-undertake-fire-safety-audit-of-all-hospitals-supreme-court-directs-states/uts/articleshow/79791808.cms. I hope that all state governments follow the Karnataka example and take this up seriously.  

It is indeed ironic that a patient comes to a hospital to get treated, but dies because of a fire accident. As we mourn the loss of ten infants, let us come together as a nation and put pressure on our state governments to ensure that all hospitals take fire safety seriously!!